Latest Harvard youth poll shows a tighter contest for young voters in battlegrounds
Harris leads Trump by 20 points amongst registered voters under 30 overall, but it's closer in battleground states. And of course, the gender divide is still paramount.
With just 🚨 11 days 🚨 until Election Day, the second edition of the fall 2024 Harvard youth poll is out with key takeaways about how young voters say they’ll vote.
Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by 20 points among registered young voters under 30: 53%-33%; her lead jumps to 28 points among likely voters: 60%-32%.
The gender gap is still paramount. Among young women in a two-way matchup, Harris leads by 25 points: 52%-27%. Among young men in a two-way matchup, Harris leads by 9 points: 46%-37%.
One of the newest insights from the poll is the fact that it shows a tighter youth vote preference in battle ground states. In battleground states, among young registered voters under 30, Harris only leads Trump by 9 points: 50%-41%.
So who do they trust on the issues?
The young registered voters surveyed say they trust Harris more than Trump on key issues (some of which are expected), like abortion rights (+36), but also on strengthening the working class (+17), and by a much smaller margin, on immigration (+3), and the economy (+2).
On the Israel Hamas war, however, the young registered voters surveyed say they trust Trump more than Harris (+3).
More data on the gender divide
Young women back Harris by a 33-point margin, while young men back Harris by a 2-point margin in the latest NBC News/Stay Tuned Gen Z poll of registered voters ages 18-29. Overall, Harris is up over Trump among this cohort by a 17-point margin: 50% to 33%.
On podcast politics
Today, Trump has plans to sit down with the ultimate macho media man Joe Rogan — a clear effort to court the young men we’re all talking about as the most sought after demographic in the final days of the cycle. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign said that while they had been in talks with Rogan’s team, they don’t expect the vice president to go on his show before Election Day. This dichotomy is just the latest example of the disparity between Trump’s podcast appearances to reach the bro-vote, as compared to the vice president’s.
Take a look at this chart that published yesterday in The Information’s Creator Economy newsletter.
Required reading
For years, I’ve tried to drive home the point that a Trump-dominated politics is all Gen Z voters know. After all, the former president has been on the ballot for every election we have been eligible to vote. This week, NBC News’ Sakshi Venkatraman wrote about this very dynamic. “It’s kind of hard to imagine having a ‘normal election,’” Avery Dalal, a 26-year-old from Texas, told Venkatraman. “I don’t even know what that means anymore.”
From a different point of view, a Trumpian politics is Gen Z’s normal and has shaped a generation of activism.
‘Just film a TikTok video!’
If you take a look at the TikTok and Instagram accounts for Harris, Trump, and their respective campaigns, there are tons of repurposed clips from the campaign trail. Trump has spoken to the camera, but rarely. Meanwhile, Harris, in recent weeks, has not filmed a face-to-camera video where she addresses young people directly.
As we creep up on Election Day, I spoke with POLITICO’s Eli Stokols for West Wing Playbook about how Harris could best reach the young Americans she hasn’t yet. As I told him, I think it would make sense for Harris (and Trump fwiw) to film a face-to-camera video where she lays out her proposals for young people’s futures, specifically as it pertains to the economy and cost of living.
Here’s why: “Young people are used to getting content from creators that is face to camera. That’s how they learn. This is what influencers are creating on the platform every day and I’m sort of surprised the campaign hasn’t done it.”
Well, there’s just over 10 days to go… we’ll see if that happens!
Thanks for this, and for the linked article!