Data confirms the Harris youth-vote vibe shift as the gender gap widens, and economic concerns are top of mind.
Data confirms the Harris youth-vote vibe shift as the gender gap widens, and economic concerns are top of mind.
Takeaways from the latest Harvard IOP youth poll. PLUS the 3 words young people use to describe the 2024 election.
The latest Harvard Institute of Politics youth poll came out this morning, and it confirms what young voters have been telling me since July. They’re excited by the possibility of a Kamala Harris presidency, and their top priority issue is the economy.
The poll found that Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 23 points among registered voters under 30 in a multi-candidate matchup and by 31 points among likely voters under 30.
Registered voters under 30: Harris 52%, Trump 29%
Likely voters under 30: Harris 61%, Trump 30%
The youth partisan gender gap widens
The Harvard IOP poll also confirms the well-reported youth partisan gender gap.
This spring, the gender gap was 17 points. It’s now 30 points.
That said, however, according to this specific poll, it’s not that young women are shifting to support Harris while young men are moving in the opposite direction. This poll shows that young women and men are both supporting Harris, but young women are just moving toward her at a much faster rate.
Among likely female voters, Harris outperforms Trump 70% to 23%
Among likely male voters, Harris outperforms Trump 53% to 36%
The memes may not be breaking through
Despite so much conversation about the memeification of both Harris and Trump as well as how Harris capitalized on internet culture in the weeks after she took over for President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, just over half of young people polled said they had seen a meme about either presidential candidate — a reminder that those of us in political circles with social feeds dominated by politics are not always representative of the average young American.
53% of young people have seen a meme about Kamala Harris online in the past month
56% of young people have seen a meme about Donald Trump online in the past month
Youth vote enthusiasm is lower then 2020 but still high
56% of young people surveyed said they “definitely” plan to vote in November, which is higher than the 53% who said the same in the spring, but lower than the number who said so in the IOP’s 2020 fall poll (when 63% of respondents said they planned to vote).
On a press briefing yesterday, I asked the team behind the Harvard IOP poll if they were worried that means less young people will turnout in November than did in 2020 (when youth voter turnout was nearly 50%, according to CIRCLE at Tufts).
Harvard IOP pollster John Della Volpe of
reminded me that 2018 and 2020 were record breaking youth vote years, and that even a number near what we saw in 2020 would still be relatively high for youth voter turnout. That said, Della Volpe added that if youth voter turnout is low, it may be because young Republicans were less inclined to vote. He pointed to data in this fall’s poll showing that young Republicans are less excited about voting than young Democrats (reading between the lines, could that spell trouble for the GOP down the line?).In the spring, young Democrats and Republicans were about as likely to say they planned to vote in the fall (Democrats had a +2 advantage). But this fall, young Democrats’ enthusiasm is outpacing young Republicans’ by 14 points.
Meanwhile, Jordan Schwartz said it’s important to remember voters have only been exposed to this candidate match-up for a couple of months. Anil Cacodcar added that the fall 2020 poll came out two weeks later in the cycle, and so closer to the election there may be more enthusiasm to vote (the Harvard IOP will be putting out another poll in a couple of weeks, so stay tuned).
As Cacodar pointed out at the top of the briefing, the Harvard IOP poll is unique in that it’s a poll of young people, written by young people (Harvard college undergraduates who work on the project).
I asked the students on yesterday’s call what was most surprising to them from the results. There was a consensus around the fact that in the poll, both young men and young women said they view Harris as strong. According to their research, they said, they believe young Americans are ready for the first female president…
The chart below shows Harris’ margin over Trump on key qualities, according to the young people surveyed. Trump beats Harris on the qualities of patriotism and humor.
Top issues: economy, abortion/reproductive/women’s rights, immigration, environment
Asked what issues concern them most thinking about “national issues,” the young people polled overwhelmingly ranked economic issues as top of mind.
Economic issues (including the economy, inflation, cost of living, and jobs) ranked number one at 32%.
Abortion/reproductive rights/women’s rights ranked at 8%.
Illegal immigrants/immigration ranked at 6%.
Environmental issues ranked at 6%.
Beyond the poll — 3 words young people are using to describe the 2024 election
Yesterday I posed a question to my followers on Instagram: What are three words for how you’re feeling about the 2024 presidential election?
I was struck by the overwhelming similarities in what everyone had to say. “Hopeful” was used 10 times, “anxious” was listed eight, and “excited” was listed four.
Here were all of the replies:
“Worried, hoping, concerned”
“Hopeful, hopeless, surreal”
“Overwhelmed, anxious, hopeful”
“Cautious optimism”
“Hopeful. Tired. Engaged.”
“Anxious, scared, a tad bit hopeful”
“Nervous, excited, anxiously hopeful”
“Gonna be close!”
“Shaking my head”
“Excited, optimistic, tired”
“Nervous, excited, & hopeful”
“Optimistic, tense, cautious”
“Despair, scared, hopeful”
“Anxious, observant, and sad”
“Uncertain, concerned, anxious”
“Anxious, irritated, and hopeful”
“Over it already (only because I hate the extra divisive rhetoric and I’m tired of all the campaign mail and ads)”
“Anxious, optimistic, hopeful”
“Hopeful, unsure, terrified”
“Excited prepared & uncertain”
“Doomed”
“Anxious, empowered, intrigued”
Kamaladevi is a one day Wonder just like the mushroom after a little drizzle !