Nearly 50% of young people say they plan to vote in November, according to new Harvard IOP youth poll
Nearly 50% of young people say they plan to vote in November, according to new Harvard IOP youth poll
A look at the Harvard IOP spring youth poll: Biden still leads Trump amongst young voters, but with smaller margins than at this point in 2020. And he's lost significant ground with young men.
Writer’s note: There are too many youth vote insights for just one newsletter edition today. More data coming later. Stay tuned…
👀 A look at the Harvard IOP spring 2024 youth poll 👀
I spent the first part of this week in Michigan talking with young voters. More on that soon. Anecdotally, it’s still fair to say young people aren’t psyched about the idea of being asked to once again vote for President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump. But that doesn’t mean they don’t feel the gravity of this election and are tuning out altogether.
In fact, today’s release of the Harvard IOP spring 2024 youth poll shows that despite speculation about young people’s lack of enthusiasm around the 2024 election, nearly 50% of young Americans say they plan to vote in November — which tracks with the number of young Americans who said the same at this point in 2020 (and with the number of young people who actually turned out to vote in 2020, according to data from The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts).
According to the Harvard IOP poll:
53% of Americans ages 18-29 say they plan to “definitely” vote in the 2024 presidential election.
That’s a good sign for anyone focused on youth voter turnout. But while that number remains consistent with this point in 2020 (when 54% of young people said they planned to vote, according to the IOP’s poll then), and while the candidates at the top of the ticket are the same, a lot has changed for young voters since 2020 (and 2022).
“As the Biden/Trump rematch takes shape, we see strong levels of engagement and interest in voting among young Americans," IOP polling director
said in a press release today. “Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things. Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern -- and the gap between young men's and young women's political preferences is pronounced.”
Despite feeling a bit like we’re stuck in Groundhog Day (at least when it comes to our presidential candidates), of course things are different than 2020. The world context has totally changed. There are new international conflicts (namely, the current wars between Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Hamas), the former president is on trial, and we’re no longer in the peak of a global pandemic.
And yet the ramifications from that pandemic are still top of mind.
“Young Americans are emerging from a pandemic that has tested our trust in democratic institutions and the bonds that unite us,” Anil Cacodcar, the student chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, said in the same press release. “Despite this, young Americans are more ready than ever to engage with these institutions to push for the change we want to see in the world.”
This is something I’m hearing more and more from young voters. There’s a sense that they’ve been trauma bonded by the experience of coming of age, graduating high school, and matriculating to college amid Covid-19. From what young adults tell me (and perhaps what this survey shows is that), the pandemic created a stark generational divide between Gen Z and their millennial cousins, Gen X parents, and Boomer grandparents. For the most part, Gen Z was forced to grow up amid Covid — which has unique social, psychological, and political ramifications. While all generations faced difficulties during Covid, of course, millennials on upward had already come of age prior to the pandemic.
Biden leads Trump in a head to head match up — but there’s a 27-point gender gap in support for Biden
While Biden still leads Trump 45% to 37% amongst all young voters ages 18-29 in a head-to-head match up, he is not leading by nearly as much as he was at this point in 2020, when he lead by 51% to 28%.
Part of that drop in support may come from the fact that Biden has a record to answer for now, whereas in 2020 there was less of a direct available comparison between the two candidates.
It’s worth noting that, according to the data, Trump voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting for the former president than Biden voters say they are about voting for Biden.
While 76% of young Trump voters say they are “enthusiastic” in their support, 44% of Biden voters say they are “enthusiastic” in theirs
Overall, much of Biden’s lost ground is due to dwindling support from young men.
Today, Biden leads Trump amongst young men by just six points, whereas among young women, Biden leads Trump by 33 points — a 27 point gender gap.
At this point in 2020, Biden lead Trump amongst young men by 26 points (a 20 point difference from today). He led Trump amongst young women by 35 points, so there’s a marginal difference there.
Gender gap also shown in party ID
When it comes to party identification, according to the IOP polling, young men are more likely to identify as Republican today than they were in 2020.
In 2020, the Harvard IOP poll showed that 42% of young men identified as Democrats, and 20% identified as Republicans.
Today, 32% of young men identify as Democrats and 29% identify as Republicans
In 2020, the Harvard IOP poll showed that 43% of young women identified as Democrats, and 23% identified as Republicans.
Today, 44% of young women identify as Democrats, and 18% identify as Republicans.
On the issues and trust
When it comes to issues, young people are feeling voicing concerns about the economy, life affordability, and healthcare — as well as women’s reproductive rights.
A dismal 9% of young Americans ages 18-29 say the country is “generally headed in the right direction.” That number has dropped 12 points from 21% who said the same in 2020.
When it comes to trust, this iteration of the Harvard IOP youth poll found the lowest levels of youth trust in public institutions to date.
20% of young Americans trust the president to do the right thing
24% of young Americans trust the Supreme Court to do the right thing
9% of young Americans trust Wall Street to do the right thing
36% of young Americans trust the military to do the right thing
17% of young Americans trust the federal government to do the right thing
12% of young Americans trust Congress to do the right thing
10% of young Americans trust the media to do the right thing
Across the board, young men are more trusting of each institution than young women.
On the Israel-Hamas war
The Harvard IOP spring 2024 youth poll found broad youth support for a ceasefire in Gaza. But overall, only a portion of young Americans say they’ve been paying close attention to news about the war.
38% of young Americans said they have “followed news about the war between Israel and Hamas” closely
51% said they support a “permanent ceasefire” in Gaza
52% said they have sympathy for the Israeli people during the war between Israel and Hamas
56% said they have sympathy for the Palestinian people during the war between Israel and Hamas
29% said they have sympathy for the Israeli government during the war between Israel and Hamas
32% said they have sympathy for the Palestinian government during the war between Israel and Hamas
17% said they have sympathy for Hamas during the war between Israel and Hamas
13% said they have sympathy for Hamas, the Islamist militant group during the war between Israel and Hamas
21% say that given what they know about the conflict, “Israel’s response so far to the October 7 attack by Hamas has been justified”