The latest historic moment
Trump has shaped Gen Z's perception of politics. While today’s decision is historic, yes, this is the latest once-in-a-lifetime moment that members of this generation have grown to expect.
Coming to you live from a flight out of Phoenix, Arizona. Since Monday, I’ve held four listening sessions with young voters: one in Las Vegas, Nevada and three in Arizona (in Tempe, Mesa, and Tucson). I spent the first half of my flight writing high-level takeaways from my time in Las Vegas, specifically, which I was planning to publish tonight. But then the breaking news alerts started pouring in — so more on that shortly.
This is obviously a historic moment in American history, as Donald Trump becomes the first former president to be found guilty as a convicted felon on all 34 counts he was charged in the New York hush money payment trial.
Former President Trump told reporters after the verdict was read that the “country’s gone to hell,” and that the trial was a “disgrace.” The former president, and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, said he believes the “real verdict” will be saved for Election Day in November.
Along those lines, my conversations with potential young voters this week centered around how they’re feeling about the 2024 election. In all honesty, we spent very little time talking about the two presidential candidates because none of the young people I spoke with this week feel particularly inspired by either of them.
Instead, we talked about the issues at stake and how it feels to be a young person grappling with the intense polarization of today’s political climate. I’d venture to say this verdict doesn’t change much for the folks I spoke with this week when it comes to their 2024 calculus.
Since 2016 (the first election in which members of Gen Z were eligible to vote for president) Trump and everything about him have shaped the political landscape. This is all that Gen Z knows. While today’s decision is historic, yes, this is the latest once-in-a-lifetime moment that members of this generation have grown to expect.
During listening sessions, I always ask the group what their biggest fears and hopes are for America. Unsurprisingly (because this has been true in a number of cities), young people in Nevada agreed they are fearful of growing polarization that results from situations like the politicization of Trump’s various trials.
Ethan, who’s 18, said his biggest fear for America is, “the impact of populism and political extremism.”
Matthew, who’s 16, said he worries that, “division will get the best of us.”
In Arizona at Mesa Community College, I asked about the factors contributing to this generation’s waning trust in politicians and the country’s traditional institutions.
Luisa, who’s 20, said she believes a breakdown of trust began during the 2016 election when, “everyone started to show their cards.” She said there have been moments where that distrust was “reflected” after 2016, such as January 6, 2021, but she counts the 2016 election as the “start” of that divide.
Xander, who’s 18, said similarly, “When Trump got elected, that’s when it was like, ‘Boom split.’ Everyone started splitting. People are like, ‘This is the guy,’ or ‘We need to get him out of office.’”
More on the meat of our conversations to come, so stay tuned.
In the meantime…
Youth vote group weighs in on Trump verdict
Within minutes of Trump’s guilty verdict, Gen Z civic engagement group Voters of Tomorrow put out a press release with the headline: “Gen Z Ready to Organize Against Convicted Criminal Donald Trump.”
“Young Americans deserve a leader who shares our values, including respect for each other and the law. Today’s conviction further demonstrates that Donald Trump is not that guy. While Donald Trump has been distracted by his own legal troubles, we have been preparing to organize Gen Z against him in November — and this conviction gives us even more ammunition to do so,” Voters of Tomorrow press secretary Jack Lobel said in a statement. “We are determined to see Donald Trump held accountable for his actions, both by the court and by young people at the ballot box in November.”
Voters of Tomorrow pointed to polling conducted with youth-focused firm Generation Lab published in March showing that 40% of registered Gen Z voters say they’re “more likely” to cast a ballot for President Joe Biden “if Donald Trump is found guilty or liable in any of his pending criminal or civil cases.”
More youth polling on Trump’s trials
The Harvard IOP Spring 2024 youth poll also asked a series of questions about how young voters’ preferences could shift if Trump was found guilty in any of his trials. Here’s what that polling showed:
“Biden's lead among all young Americans increases from 8 to 18 points”
“Biden's lead among young registered voters increases from 13 to 21 points”
“Biden's lead among young likely voters increases from 19 to 28 points”
The Harvard IOP Spring 2024 poll was conducted between March 14 and 21, 2024.
Want to weigh in? I’d love to hear your thoughts.