Trump’s youth favorability drops 34 points
What changed? Honestly, not much.
The vibes have shifted very quickly from a year ago, when President Donald Trump took office for his second term.
Then: At the time, I wrote about ‘the culture shift with Trump 2.0.’ Trump was coming off a remarkable performance with young voters, the best of any Republican candidate in modern history, and a whole range of prominent young (ish) voices were bullish about his second term — from manosphere content creators to frat bros and Silicon Valley executives.
The young voters who supported Trump were optimistic, but driven by issues — the economy, immigration, and anti-war sentiment, which is even more relevant now than it was then — and though many young Americans had backed Trump in 2024, they warned they could “flip on a dime” and that their support shouldn’t be taken for granted.
And now: A whole lot of new polling paints a very different picture. Let’s break it down.
Trump favorability…
Jan 2025: +7.6
Jan 2026: -25.5
That’s a ~34-point drop.
Trump approval overall: -30
Inflation: -42
Economy: -32
Immigration: -26
Top Issues Facing Country
Economy & jobs (27%)
Inflation (22%)
Immigration (21%)
Health care (10%)
Trump approval overall: -39
/tariffs: -42
/health care: - 42
/foreign affairs: -39
/economy: -38
/federal government: -38
/immigration: -36
/commander-in-chief: -36
/Venezuela: -30
So what changed? Honestly, not much. As Gallup data confirmed last week, more than half of Gen Z Americans consider themselves politically independent. They are driven by issues — not partisan loyalty — and move at the speed of internet culture, which is constantly changing its tune.
There are two underrated reasons why Trump did well with young voters in 2024:
They were sick of cancel culture and a politics defied by purity tests and identity
He pitched himself as the “no new wars” president
These themes are even more relevant today than they were then.
The fact that they’ve soured on Trump in the past year is not a surprise. It’s a consequence of the actions of his administration.
🚨 But it doesn’t mean young voters are suddenly swinging back toward Democrats, who are still largely operating in defense mode while Trump fumbles on the economy, sends ICE to cities across the country, and shakes up the geopolitical landscape (while threatening Greenland). In fact, many young people (and the internet) are growing impatient with strongly worded letters and social media posts that signal Democratic leaders’ frustration but fail to meet what feels like the urgency of the political moment.
For example ⤵️
The Up and Up’s take: The candle is burning on both ends. Young voters to Trump’s right are growing increasingly frustrated with him and the Republican party. Meanwhile, young progressives are frustrated by what they say is a lack of urgency from Democratic leaders. This could lead to a real shake up of young voters in 2026 — and 2028.
In other news
Noteworthy reads
What Is College for in the Age of AI, Jeffrey Selingo for NY Magazine
What Seniors Are Writing About in Their College Admissions Essays, Bernard Mokam for The New York Times
Report: Young Trump voters drive a sharp cultural turn, Margaret Talev and Russell Contreras for Axios
Can’t believe I made it on The Up and Up 🥹
It's hard to take seriously people who want Democrats to "Do Something" when you have the feeling that they don't have a clue how legislatures work. They need to be knowledgeable enough to be able to make specific suggestions that are actually possible when Democrats are in the minority in the House and Senate, and also in many state legislatures. Just saying "Do Something" is useless, and counter productive.