Warning Signs for 2028

Polls paint a picture. But conversations with young Americans reveal a deeper crisis.

Photo by Taylor Friehl on Unsplash

Nearly six months into President Donald Trump’s second term, a new CNN poll breaks down Americans’ views by age — offering fresh insights into how young people are feeling about a range of issues.

This recent poll generated a headline that will sound familiar to longtime readers of The Up and Up – “Young people are skeptical of the American Dream” – which grabbed my attention.

The American Dream is a recurring theme in my listening sessions and Reality Checks with young people. While Gen Z isn’t dismissing the ideal outright, they’re redefining it — reshaping what success, stability, and fulfillment mean for their generation.

On the whole, according to a CNN analysis, the May survey found that in less than 10 years, our collective perception of the American Dream has dwindled, with young people “less bullish that they can ‘make it.’”

According to the poll, a majority of Americans under 45 — 51% — believe that “hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people.” That sentiment is even more pronounced among those under 30, with 53% in agreement. In contrast, just 41% of Americans 45 and older share that view, highlighting a generational divide in belief in the meritocratic promise.

Beyond perceptions of the American Dream, the poll examined how Americans feel about both parties and their views on national issues such as the economy, immigration, abortion, climate change, education, international affairs, crime, and more.

Lukewarm on parties, strong on issues

Young people are skeptical of both parties’ leadership — but they’re especially disillusioned with the Democrats. In the poll, respondents under 30 were asked which party is better described as “the party with strong leaders.” Just 19% chose the Democratic Party. 31% pointed to the Republicans. And a striking 49% said neither. With lukewarm support across major figures and issues, it’s clear to me that young Americans aren’t just politically independent, they’re politically homeless. This is a massive opportunity – and a massive warning – for both parties looking towards 2028.

Meanwhile, young Americans are the least likely of any age group to say “American democracy is under attack” — just 44% hold that view. While only slightly lower than the 45% of 30 to 49-year-olds who agree, it signals a broader trend: young people are less alarmed about the current state of democracy, or perhaps more discouraged by it altogether. This makes sense to me since Donald Trump has been on the ballot for every presidential election since the oldest members of Gen Z were just 19-years-old, changing the game of American politics, introducing a dgaf energy to our Democratic norms and their longevity, and recently, making inroads with a sizable chunk of young people (in part) for that reason. Whether this stat reflects genuine confidence in democratic institutions or dangerous complacency with democratic norms will likely define civic engagement in the coming decade.

When asked which party’s views align more with their own across key issues, young people leaned slightly toward the Democrats — but the gaps were narrow. On the economy, the split was nearly even: Americans under 30 sided with Democrats over Republicans by just one percentage point, signaling tepid support rather than strong alignment.

Meanwhile, 38% of people under 45 said they don’t feel represented by either party on the economy, which has proven to be young people’s top issue time and time again. Whichever party or leader can credibly address this generation’s economic anxiety — beyond traditional partisan talking points — will likely capture their political attention.

Young Americans overwhelmingly believe in a more active government. 63% of those under 30 say the “government should do more to solve problems” — close to double the 36% who think it’s already trying to do too much.

Of all generations, it comes as no surprise to me that young people are the most staunchly pro-choice. Nearly half of Americans under 30 — 45% — say abortion should be “legal under any circumstances.” That’s notably higher than the 37% of those ages 30 to 49 who share that view, underscoring a generational shift on reproductive rights. In my conversations with young voters leading up to the 2024 election, I found that often, even the most pro-Trump young men were pro-choice.

64% of young people say they’re very or somewhat worried about climate change where they live — only slightly more than the 62% of respondents under 45 and those aged 30 to 49. The concern is there, but it’s not dramatically different from millennials and Gen X.

The takeaway: My conversations with young people illuminate a sentiment the polls aren’t fully fully capturing yet: it’s not apathy, it’s conscious disengagement. When I talk to Gen Z Americans, it’s clear they're not checking out of politics because they don’t care. Of course they do. They’re stepping back because they feel like the current political system is fundamentally broken and neither party is offering a solution to match the scale – or specifics – of their challenges. The danger for both parties is less that young people will vote for the other side, it’s that they’ll stop believing electoral politics can deliver the change they need. That’s a much bigger problem as we look to 2028 than any single poll number suggests.

Noteworthy reads

• ‘It’s so boring’: Gen Z parents don’t like reading to their kids – and educators are worried, Alaina Demopoulos for The Guardian

• Can Gen Z’s Nostalgia Save Restaurants?, Jordan Winters for The New York Times

• What Experts Think About Gen Z Sharing Their Location, Sydni Ellis for Buzzfeed

• Gen Z feels ‘pressure’ to be influencers – and their schools encourage it, Sarah Bregel for Fast Company

And listens

• My friend Sara Falkson recently launched Robyn to redesign sports bras and boost body confidence for young women. Last month, she joined NBC Boston’s Hannah Donnelly on the ‘On Her Mark’ podcast to discuss her new initiative. I’m really proud of her. You can listen here.

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