👀 These are the states where young voters could play the biggest role in 2024 👀

CIRCLE's latest 'Youth Electoral Significance Index' ratings rank the top 10 states where young people have the greatest potential to impact next year's presidential, Senate, and House races.

Today’s brief update:

For years, the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts (CIRCLE) has ranked the states and districts where young voters could play the biggest role in shifting upcoming election outcomes. The ‘Youth Electoral Significance Index’ ratings (abbreviated to the ‘YESI’ ratings for those steeped in the youth vote space) take into account: “projected competitiveness, voting laws, past youth participation, and various demographic and socioeconomic attributes,” CIRCLE says.

In 2020, for example, CIRCLE’s YESI report previewed how young people could make their mark in Georgia — where young voters were ultimately credited by CIRCLE and others with having helped Democrats win the presidential and Senate runoff elections.

This week, CIRCLE released its 2024 YESI ratings, offering youth vote organizers, advocates, operatives, and funders the opportunity to direct their efforts to states and districts where they could get the biggest bang for their buck. The rankings also alert the media to areas where journalists and reporters should potentially pay extra close attention in terms of youth vote story tracking for the next 10+ months. While the rankings include key battleground states that you may expect would top a list like this, they also offer fresh insight into lesser talked about districts (in New York and California, for example) where young people could have an outsized influence.

Here’s what CIRCLE found:

Presidential Ratings

1. Wisconsin

2. Georgia

3. Arizona

4. Pennsylvania

5. Michigan

6. Nevada

7. North Carolina

8. Minnesota

9. New Hampshire

10. Florida

Senate Ratings

1. Arizona, currently held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema

2. Ohio, currently held by Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown

3. Montana, currently held by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester

4. Wisconsin, currently held by Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin

5. Michigan, currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow

6. Nevada, currently held by Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen

7. Pennsylvania, currently held by Democratic Sen. Bob Casey

8. Texas, currently held by Republican Sen. Ted Cruz

9. Maine, currently held by Independent Sen. Angus King

10. Utah, currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney

House Ratings

1. Michigan-07, currently held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who’s running for Senate

2. Oregon-05, currently held by Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer

3. New York-17, currently held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler

4. New York-04, currently held by Republican. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito

5. Washington-03, currently held by Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

6. New York-22, currently held by Republican Rep. Brandon Williams

7. California-27, currently held by Republican Rep. Mike Garcia

8. Colorado-08, currently held by Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo

9. New York-03, formerly held by former Republican Rep. George Santos

10. New York-19, currently held by Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro

🚨 It’s worth noting that 5 of the 10 US House districts where young voters have the highest chance of impacting 2024 races are in New York.