Youth vote in the news 1/19

Early insight from Iowa. Are ‘fed up’ young voters going to opt out of 2024? And how will climate play for young Republicans in New Hampshire?

Between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, questions continue to swirl over whether or not disillusioned young people will vote in high numbers in 2024.

They surely aren’t hyped about the idea of a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — but we’ve been saying that for a while! I truly do think it’s too early to gauge whether our potential candidates will keep voters at home, but it’s worth recognizing young people’s concerns while there’s still time to address them.

There was low youth voter turnout in Iowa this week… but there isn’t typically high youth turnout in the Iowa caucuses and it was brutally, brutally cold. As I reported on Monday, the young Republican voters I spoke with in the Hawkeye state just a couple of weeks ago weren’t expecting many of their friends to caucus. But that doesn’t mean they won’t vote in November, they said. To be determined…

Here’s what we do know about youth voter turnout in Iowa, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts:

• 2% of Iowans under 30 caucused… (though this isn’t far off from the 4% of young Iowans that caucused in 2012 and 3% of young Iowans that caucused in 1996, the two most recent times only the GOP had competitive primaries)

• Young voters under 30 accounted for only 9% of everyone who caucused (which qualifies as the lowest youth share of voters in the Iowa caucuses since 2000)

As for who young Republicans supported, early data gives conflicting reports. The National Election Pool’s Entrance Poll shows that young people showed the most support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (30%), ahead of former South Carolina Gov. and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (25%), tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (who since dropped out), and former President Donald Trump. But AP Votecast shows that a majority of young people (53%) backed Trump. 

Onto New Hampshire, which CIRCLE rates as one of the top ten states where young people could impact the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. TBD! 

Here are this week’s youth vote headlines:

Here’s Why Gen Z Voters Might Opt Out in 2024, Fortesa Latifi for Teen Vogue, 1/16

In a voice-driven analysis of how left-leaning young people are thinking about 2024, Latifi sheds light on the reality that many are feeling deflated.

“For the first time since he became eligible to vote, Elias, 26, isn’t going to cast a ballot for president in the next election. Lillian, 20, hasn’t decided whether she’s going to vote or not. Lia, 28, is going to leave the spot for “president” blank on her ballot. And Zach, 22, is having a hard time convincing some of his friends that their vote matters,” Latifi writes.

Though some of the young people she spoke with list President Joe Biden's support for Israel as a reason they may not support him come November, this dynamic existed far before October 7. As Latifi explains, these potential young voters also cite a broken promise on student debt cancellation and disdain for the electoral college, which points to systemic distrust and dissatisfaction.

What did the Iowa caucuses reveal about what younger voters want from candidates?, Steve Inskeep, NPR Morning Edition, 1/16

In a conversation with Inskeep, youth voter engagement group Voters of Tomorrow’s national press secretary Jack Lobel touches on why he believes the GOP is losing young voters — pointing to low youth voter turnout in Iowa this week. But Lobel also touches on what he believes to be a misrepresentation of young people’s disapproval of Biden.

Asked by Inskeep if young people outspoken against Biden for his support of Israel in the war between Israel and Hamas will withhold from voting for the president in November, Lobel argues that there is a whole slate of other issues motivating young people.

“Pollsters haven't really figured out how to accurately measure my generation's views. A lot of these polls are conducted by the phone, and a lot of us don't really pick up the phone. So our voting history is more revealing. It shows that we support President Biden's vision and strongly oppose Donald Trump's. In 2018 and 2020, 2022, and even last year in 2023, my generation turned out to support progress, to support protecting our freedoms, our abortion rights, our climate. And that still sends a more powerful message than anything going into 2024,” Lobel told Inskeep.

The 2024 Election Already Has Gen Zers Fed Up, Jordyn Stapleton for Her Campus, 1/16

Her Campus’ latest survey is out and it presents some interesting findings, Stapelton reports.

Of the 657-person survey, top findings demonstrate exceptionally high levels of predicted youth voter turnout, disdain for the electoral college (something I’ve personally been hearing a lot of from young people recently), “concern” for the potential outcome of the 2024 election, and frustrations with the “current state of the American government.”

As for party affiliation, 51% of respondents say “identify” as Democrats, 13% Republicans, 12% independents, and 17% unaffiliated. Top issues were: “reproductive rights,” “gun control,” and “energy, environment, and climate change.”

Asked which candidate they would back if the election were today, 32% said President Joe Biden. Coming in second to the commander in chief was Democratic challenger Marianne Williamson, with 24%.

How climate change is, or isn’t, a factor for young Republicans ahead fo the NH primary, Mara Hoplamazian for NHPR, 1/15

For years, the youth-led American Conservation Coalition (ACC), a group of conservative environmentalists, has advocated for market-based climate solutions and sought to make climate a front and center issue for Republican candidates. Their work is being put to the test this year, and is relevant now in New Hampshire, Hoplamazian reports.

“New Hampshire has become a stage for the group’s 501(c)(4) arm to inject questions about how conservative candidates would handle climate change into the circuit of largely climate-free stump speeches and coffee chats saturating New Hampshire ahead of the first-in-the-nation Republican primary,” Hoplamazian writes.

Part of ACC’s argument is that if the Republican Party has any shot at winning over younger voters, they have to address climate change, which as the group’s president Chris Barnard pointed out in a December conversation with former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, is a “top three issue for young people.”

As ACC’s Northeast division leader Brian Martinez put it in this piece for NHPR:

“Candidates don't need to be 'the climate candidate,' but they need to realize that if they're going to win young people, they're going to need to come to the table on climate. And if they don't do that, then they're going to lose almost half of the voting block for 2024.”