Young Voters Say Fear of War Shaped Their 2024 Vote
“Wasn’t this the guy who’s supposed to stop forever wars?”
I’ve been tracking how young Americans feel about foreign policy.
Gen Z barely remembers Iraq, if they remember it at all. But they’ve watched foreign war live-streamed 24/7 for the past few years and, on the whole, the young voters I speak to are wary of getting involved in foreign conflicts while they stare down their own crises here at home.
Now, after the U.S. military captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro over the weekend and he was arraigned in New York City, many are celebrating the fact that he was removed from power. But there’s renewed fear and focus on what a global response could look like — especially as the U.S. says it will “run” Venezuela.
War on their mind. Americans don’t typically vote on foreign policy. But many young people in The Up and Up’s Gen Z community have consistently said the idea of war was part of who they decided to vote for in 2024.
Embrace of America First. Some young people, especially those right of center, have latched onto ‘America First’ rhetoric boosted by President Donald Trump and his allies. The phrase started to surface in our listening sessions around the time the Russia Ukraine war broke out, and then again during Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza. Over the summer, after the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, we heard it again. Now, Trump finds himself in a sticky place as he has to explain, and prove, how his administration’s recent actions are, in fact, ‘America First.’
It’s not just MAGA youth. Zooming out, fear of U.S. involvement in foreign conflict isn’t confined to the right. Across the political spectrum, young people (and young men especially, who could be subject to a national draft) are wondering why the U.S. is getting involved in foreign countries when they feel constant crises here at home. If the cost of everything is rising and the deficit is growing, why is the U.S. spending money abroad?
📊 By the numbers. There’s data backing this up.
63% of conservative young men (18-29)
57% of MAGA Republican young men
and 53% of all young men
said, “the US should be LESS actively involved in world affairs,” according to a YouGov/Young Men Research Project poll from November.
And a generational divide. And younger Americans are notably less supportive of the US taking a “leading” or “active” role in world affairs than older generations.
Just one in ten Americans ages 18-34-year-old (10%) say the U.S. should take the leading role in world affairs — a 10-point drop-off from those ages 35-54 (20%) and a 13-point difference from those 55 and older (23%), according to a Gallup poll from last March.
39% of 18-29-year-olds say it is “extremely” or “very” important for the U.S. should take an active role in the world — a 5-point drop from those 30-49 (44%), a 20-point drop from those 50-64 (59%), and a 34-point drop from those 65 and older (73%), according to a Pew Research Center poll from December.
The Up and Up’s take: For a generation already deeply distrusting of government, the idea that the U.S. would involve itself and potentially put boots on the ground in Venezuela (or elsewhere) is frightening — especially for young people who could be drafted. Trump over-performed with young men in 2024, in part because he promised to be a pro-peace president. But many are quickly losing faith in that promise.
“Wasn’t this the guy who’s supposed to stop forever wars?,” a 26-year-old from Maryland said over the summer.
“Trump ran a good campaign to young people on stopping war. That was one of the main slogans that he went off of as being pro-peace,” an 18-year-old from Arizona told me in December. “And then we saw obviously, the Ukraine war still happening. We bombed Iran. We’re about to bomb Venezuela. So, I think young people are still watching the Trump administration and seeing what the future is going to be for when it comes to stopping war.”
He continued:
“I think young people are detached from the war on terror and that justification for the U.S. being a pro-involvement country, and I think they did look to Trump, a lot of young people who were especially pro-Palestine, looked for Trump in the Republican party for the first year and obviously that did not happen so far in his administration.”
In other news
Noteworthy reads
Nostalgia Economy and Analog Awakening, Casey Lewis for After School
What a Viral YouTube Video Says About the Future of Journalism, Jay Caspian Kang for The New Yorker
The College Backlash is a Mirage, Rose Horowitch for The Atlantic
Gee, kids. Looking forward to putting on the combat boots, and carrying a high-power rifle? I hope that you don't lose too many brothers and friends, that is, assuming that YOU may be lucky enough to survive. Oh yes, given our evil President and his attitude toward women, it might just be that pretty girl friend that gives her life to keep you guys with sufficient excitement and hero-status.
Clearly the authority of the Legislative Branch has been illegally usurped, but our remedial mechanisms of prosecution are in the Executive Branch. While the Executive Branch is breaking the law, the Legislative Branch is controlled by the same party as the Executive Branch; hence, the Legislature is complicit in the crime and has not complained sufficiently. Perhaps our checks and balances are unchecked and
unbalanced. Those need revisiting and reset. Would you not say that at the very least?
https://hotbuttons.substack.com/p/declare-war-clause?r=3m1bs