Good morning and happy Election Day.
Today’s first time voter was:
Born in 2008
8-years-old when Trump was first elected
In 7th grade when Covid hit
The latest NYT/Siena poll of likely voters in battleground states has Democrats up 40 points for the Senate with voters under 30. That’s a very different picture from 2024, when young voters only backed Vice President Kamala Harris by a 4-point margin.
But how much has really changed since then? As I’ve been saying for quite some time, young voters (and young men especially) are expected to ditch Trump for the same reasons they backed him in the first place: the cost of living, fear of war, and a rejection of the establishment. It’s that simple.
*Read our 2026 Youth Vote Roadmap: The Everyday Issue Election*
And as I wrote this week for Vox, economic anxiety has reshaped Gen Z’s relationship to politics.
More of our pre-election pieces
A couple of weeks ago, I held a focus group in partnership with the Kettering Foundation focused on Gen Z’s mounting sense of economic anxiety. Our conversation really shaped my expectations for tonight.
Overall, the participants were unable to name a politician talking about the economy in a way that resonates — on either side of the aisle. That will influence their decision to vote, or not.
This election isn’t just about where young people stand with Democrats and Republicans. It’s about where they stand with politics, period. They desperately want to feel like candidates — on either side — are going to improve their financial situation.
The reason socialism had a surge this summer and this could be a very anti-incumbent year is, in part, because many young Americans feel that democracy is broken. This is driven by a sense that elected officials are out of touch with the realities of what it means to be a young person today, including the financial angst that can come along with it.
The result is that many young Americans are left questioning if or how their financial picture will improve over time: they are frustrated by the status quo and feel the system does not work for people like them. That could leave them to disengage in the long-term as a result.
Here’s what I heard.
“Financially the economy doesn’t allow us to really have emergencies comfortably. Either we have to take out a loan or call somebody in order to get that little bit of money to pay for some sort of emergency,” said a 26-year-old from Florida.
“I’m starting to abandon traditional milestones that I feel like we’re taught to aim for. For example, in my specific situation, I’m heavily considering not having children as well as not having resources to save up for like a house,” said a 20-year-old from New York.
“Making the minimum wage actually livable would be a good thing to have. There’s a lot of people who have minimum wage jobs and are barely making it by. Like you’re scraping every single penny to even just pay rent or buy food,” said a 19-year-old from Florida.
“I don’t think many [politicians] are talking about [the cost of living] well on either side of the aisle. One side appeals to the older generation. The other side, to me, is coming across more and more like, let’s give everybody free stuff,” said a 26-year-old from Florida.
Zooming out
This tracks with how we’re hearing young people describe their general sense of economic anxiety. Gas prices hit an all time high for an Election Day today. And our community is taking note.
In an ongoing Reality Check with our community, we heard the following:
Noteworthy Reads & Watches
Reads
Why Are Political Candidates Emailing Like Ex-Boyfriends and Car Salesmen?, Sophie Haigney for The Atlantic, Pre-midterm polls signal youth vote U-turn, Avery Lotz and Margaret Talev for Axios, Searching for Jobs, Gen Z Feels Like It’s Staring Into ‘the Void’, Callie Holtermann for The New York Times.
Watches
We spent so much time talking about podcasts like Flagrant before the 2024 election. Listen to how they’re talking about the midterms today — including the role that Kalshi’s playing.
Plus, Harry Styles registered 33,000 fans to vote: